07 Jul 2025
The British Pound edged lower on Monday amid a quiet start to a week filled with key economic data releases that could help shape expectations for future interest rate moves.
Globally, investors remained focused on the approaching US tariff deadline.
Sterling dipped 0.3% to $1.3601 against the US Dollar, while it held steady against the Euro at 86.23 pence.
Last week, uncertainty surrounding the state of the UK’s public finances unsettled investors, fuelled by a series of policy reversals from the governing Labour Party on welfare reforms, stirring speculation about the future of Chancellor Rachel Reeves.
Attention is now turning to a series of economic data releases this week. On Monday, new figures showed that British house prices were flat in June on a month-on-month basis, as anticipated, following the implementation of a property transaction tax hike in April, Reuters reports.
However, “the post-April dip is likely to fizzle out,” said Victoria Scholar, head of investment at Interactive Investor. “Plus, mortgage lending is improving, thanks to four rate cuts from the Bank of England over the last year and two more priced in this year.”
Later this week, traders will closely examine a report on GDP which could shed light on the state of the UK economy and influence expectations for interest rate decisions.
Bank of England policymaker Alan Taylor stated late Friday that, in his view, it would be more prudent to lower interest rates now rather than delay and risk having to implement sharper cuts later.
Taylor anticipates the Bank Rate will decline to “around 3%” by the end of next year. Meanwhile, markets are largely pricing in a 25-basis point rate cut by the Bank of England in September, according to data compiled by LSEG.
Global investors were keeping a close eye on Wednesday’s looming deadline, as countries rushed to finalise trade agreements with the US in a bid to avoid steep tariff hikes on their exports.
The UK was the first to reach a deal with the US back in May, successfully sidestepping the new tariffs on steel and aluminium. Talks are still underway to eliminate the existing 25% duties on industrial metals entirely.
Since securing the trade deal with the US, the Pound has gained around 2% and is now trading near its highest level since late 2021, also supported by a broader decline in the US Dollar.
In a separate development, a Deloitte survey revealed that British business leaders increasingly view domestic opportunities as more appealing, while the United States is becoming less attractive as an investment destination.
In other developments, Rachel Reeves is set to unveil a £28.6 million investment by the National Wealth Fund in a carbon capture project. The initiative aims to generate jobs in central and northern England, as the government looks to strengthen public backing.