Euro declines as inflation falls more than predicted

30 Nov 2023

The Euro dipped on Thursday as eurozone inflation eased by more than forecast in November, increasing bets of early rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB).

Consumer price growth in the eurozone fell to 2.4% this month from 2.9% in October, falling short of expectations for a decline to 2.7%.

"The message from today's European CPI data is clear. Disinflation is continuing at a rapid pace in Europe – and, importantly, more swiftly than the market or even the ECB's expectations," said Matthew Landon, global market strategist at JP Morgan Private Bank.

"Falling inflation and a stagnant economy could justify ECB cuts as soon as the first quarter of next year in our view," he added.

The single currency fell 0.5% against the Dollar to $1.0910 after hitting its highest level since August on Wednesday at $1.1017.

Markets are pricing in a rate cut from the ECB by April, with around 115 basis points of easing priced in by the end of 2024, Reuters reports.

Elsewhere, the Dollar index, measuring the greenback against six peers, increased 0.4% to 103.25, rallying after hitting 102.46 on Wednesday, a low not seen since 11 August.

However, for November, the index is down 3.2%, the largest monthly decline since last November, on mounting expectations the Fed will slash interest rates in the first half of next year.

"The key drivers in November for the Dollar weakness have been the benign inflation data and the loosening signs of the labour market," said associate FX and rates strategy at Danske Bank, Mohamad Al-Saraf.

"The notion of a soft landing has increased, and usually, that's a bad environment for the Dollar."

In addition, Sterling was trading down 0.39% at $1.2646 at the time of writing, whilst the Australian Dollar edged down 0.1% to $0.6610. That said, the Aussie is still up 4.3% for this month, its sharpest one-month gain in a year.

In Japan, the Yen was down 0.17% to 147.485 per Dollar but is still near the two-and-a-half-month high of 146.675 per Dollar reached on Wednesday.