Euro decline continues

21 Jun 2021

The Euro continued to decline at the end of last week marking its largest decline since the final week of March last year. As a result, the Euro-Dollar exchange rate could stabilise at or above the 1.1825 level this week. 

FX strategist Jane Foley said, “While we had not expected such a sizeable move in the USD this week, our EUR/USD forecasts have been counter consensus and we have been anticipating a stronger USD this summer. Given the possibility of a partial retracement in the USD’s move, for now we retain our previous forecasts of 1.20 on a 1-month view followed by a move to 1.17 on a 6-month view.” 

Moreover, the Pound-to-Canadian Dollar is trading at a spot rate of 1.7240, and may edge higher this week, closing in on a three-month high. “GBP has traded on a broadly stable footing against the EUR in recent weeks, suggesting that much of the variability we've seen in the pound remains more dollar-driven — this week in particular,” FX strategist Ned Rumpeltin noted. 

In addition, the GBP/EUR is trading at 1.1629 whilst the GBP/USD stands at 1.3796 at the start of the week. Central to the GBP’s performance is the Bank of England's Thursday policy meeting. Traders are warned to remain cautious on the outlook for the Pound. Robert Howard, a Reuters market analyst, “Sterling may need the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee to deliver a more hawkish than expected message on June 24 to recoup some of its recent losses against the U.S. dollar.”