Dollar rises, yet on track for fourth straight monthly loss

31 Jan 2023

The U.S. Dollar moved higher on Tuesday, despite being on course for its fourth straight monthly loss.

A series of central bank meetings are taking place this week, beginning with the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) on Thursday.

In early trade in Europe, the Euro fell against the greenback and, at the time of writing, was down 0.41% at $1.081.

It was "likely some profit-taking ahead of the key event risks just ahead," according to the head of Asia FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets, Alvin Tan.

The single currency is still up over 0.8% for the month, near a nine-month top after declining energy prices gave the eurozone economy a breather.

The Dollar index rose 0.31% on Tuesday to 102.56, Reuters reports. Yet it edged down 0.9% for this month as a whole. This puts it on track for its fourth consecutive monthly fall, having dropped 11% since hitting a two-decade high at the end of September.

"These foundations of Dollar strength continue to be undermined, whether it's the less bad global economic outlook, whether it's the Fed easing back," said Ben Laidler, eToro global markets strategist.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is set to hike rates by 25 basis points, the smallest rise since March last year, to a range of between 4.5% and 4.75%.

"In the less likely outcome that the Fed give the impression that they could pause after this week's hike, then the U.S. Dollar could easily sell off and risky assets rally," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone in Melbourne.

In addition, investors forecast the ECB and BoE will each hike rates by 50 basis points on Thursday.

At the time of writing, Sterling was down 0.29% at $1.231, but on course for its fourth monthly rise.