Sterling was largely unchanged on Monday as investors paid little attention to progress on ending the US federal government shutdown and instead looked ahead to key economic data this week that could influence the Bank of England’s next move.
The Pound edged up 0.08% to $1.3175 and gained slightly against the Euro, trading at 87.83 pence.
It also ended last week mostly flat. Although the Bank of England kept interest rates on hold on Thursday, the narrow split, with five policymakers backing a pause and four favouring a cut, limited any boost for the currency, as market attention swiftly turned to the December policy meeting.
That makes this week’s economic data particularly significant, Reuters news agency reports.
Market expectations for Monetary Policy Committee decisions will continue to hinge on incoming data, especially since Governor Bailey’s pivotal vote is tied directly to economic indicators.
In that context, Tuesday’s labour market figures and Thursday’s flash Q3 GDP data will be crucial indicators.
Markets currently view a 25-basis-point rate cut in December as the more probable outcome, although it’s far from guaranteed.
Furthermore, investors are also keeping an eye on the UK budget due in late November. Analysts widely expect Chancellor Rachel Reeves to announce tax increases, though the specifics remain uncertain amid extensive media speculation.
Indications that US lawmakers were nearing a deal to reopen the federal government helped lift equity and bond markets on Monday, though the impact on currencies was mostly confined to the safe-haven Yen and the risk-on Australian Dollar.
Sterling slipped 0.4% against the Aussie and rose 0.5% versus the Yen, mirroring similar movements in the US Dollar and the Euro.