SNB to keep franc cap into 2016
Economists believe that the Swiss National Bank will keep its franc cap into 2016 as euro-area policy makers’ attempts to fuel inflation maintain pressure on the Swiss currency.
Just 14% of the 22 economists polled in the Bloomberg Monthly Survey predict the SNB will lift the minimum exchange rate by the end of 2015, compared with 27% last month and 53% in May. A record 46% say the cap will be lifted in 2016, up from 36% in June. 23% bet on a suspension in 2017 or later.
The SNB capped the franc at 1.20 per euro nearly three years ago, citing the risk of deflation and a recession as investors bought the franc as a refuge amid the euro area’s debt crisis. Economists expect a 2014 inflation rate of 0.1%, accelerating to 0.6% in 2015 and 1.2% in 2016, according to the median estimate in the survey. They predict a growth rate of 2% this year, with 2.2% expected for 2015 and 2.1% in 2016.
The franc appreciated 0.5% against the euro last month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It traded at 1.2155 against the bloc’s currency during morning trading in Zurich.
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