The Pound strengthened for a fifth straight day on Wednesday as the US Dollar weakened, just ahead of the UK Chancellor’s expected announcement of billions in tax increases aimed at reassuring both bond markets and the public.
Rachel Reeves faces mounting pressure to maintain fiscal discipline and uphold her own budget rules. A gloomier economic outlook and rising borrowing costs have pushed her to weigh a broad array of options to close the fiscal gap.
Economists are forecasting as much as £30 billion in tax hikes when she speaks in parliament around 1230 GMT, Reuters news agency reports.
Sterling rose 0.17% to $1.3188, extending its five-day advance against the US currency to 1%, the biggest weekly rise since mid-August. The move has largely been fuelled by a softer Dollar as investors increasingly bet on a steep decline in US interest rates next year.
Against the Euro, Sterling has also strengthened, though more moderately, gaining 0.5% over the past week. It was recently holding steady at 87.88 pence.
In the lengthy build-up to this budget, attention has largely centred on tax increases and a rising welfare burden. But for financial markets, the key question is whether the budget can actually generate economic growth.
As a result, the Office for Budget Responsibility’s projections and the Chancellor’s remarks will be closely examined for signals about the UK’s economic path. If the outlook appears weak, markets could react harshly and the Pound may face renewed downward pressure.
The independent Office for Budget Responsibility is set to publish its updated economic and fiscal projections roughly an hour after Reeves delivers her statement to parliament.
On Tuesday, demand for short-term hedges against sharp moves in Sterling jumped, highlighting investor anxiety over whether Reeves’ budget will adequately calm fears about the UK’s long-term fiscal position.