Dollar falls as Fed rate hike expectations lowered

13 Mar 2023

The US Dollar declined on Monday on the likelihood the Federal Reserve will take on a less aggressive stance in hiking rates after authorities got involved in curbing the fallout from the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse.

The US government unveiled a number of measures, stating all SVB clients will have access to their deposits from Monday.

In addition, the authorities said Signature Bank's depositors – closed on Sunday by the New York state financial regulator – would be made whole, Reuters reports.

The Fed said additional funding would be made available via a new Bank Term Funding Program, offering loans to depository institutions for up to a year, backed by Treasuries and other assets.

The Dollar index – measuring the greenback against six rivals – fell 0.55%, close to one-month lows of 103.67. At the time of writing, the index stood at 104.12.

As it stands now, the market is pricing in close to a 60% chance the Fed will remain with the current rate and a 40% chance of a 25-basis point rise. Whereas before the SVB collapse. The market priced in a 70% chance of a 50-basis point increase.

"There's been a radical change in interest rate expectations, and in that scenario, the Dollar has weakened," according to Niels Christensen, the chief analyst at Nordea.

"The reason we're seeing such repricing in rate hike expectations is the collapse of the banks. If we don't see any spreading, expectations for rate hikes should be revived quickly."

Elsewhere, the Euro rose 0.29% at $1.0670, having previously reached a one-month high of $1.0737, ahead of Thursday's European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting.

"The ECB is still expected to deliver a 50-basis point hike," Christensen went on to say.

"The question is how hawkish will the ECB be. We think they'll signal there will be more rate hikes to come."

Furthermore, at the time of writing, the Pound was up 0.39% in the day at $1.2082.