Greece will probably need a third bailout, economists say
Greece’s return to bond markets after a four-year exile hasn’t convinced economists it can avoid a third bailout, with six out of 10 economists in a Bloomberg News survey believing that Greece will need to top up the €240 billion euros of loans received from Europe and the International Monetary Fund since 2010.
However, Greece’s economy is still expected to exit recession this year and expand by 0.2%, according to a separate Bloomberg News survey published on July 14.
Greek bonds have rallied since the country undertook the biggest sovereign debt restructuring in history and came close to leaving the euro. That allowed the government to tap markets twice this year, raising €4.5 billion in three- and five-year bonds.
The IMF forecasts Greece will have a €12.6 billion financing gap next year. The European Commission forecasts Greece’s public debt will peak at 177% of gross domestic product this year.
The financing gap is one issue that will be looked at when officials representing the euro area and IMF, known as the troika, return to Athens in September.
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